Showing posts with label truthiness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label truthiness. Show all posts

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Satyam Computer Services Fraud

As the weeks unfold, more news of fraud and inappropriate transactions come to light.

According to an article written by Heather Timmons, of the International Herald Tribune, Ramalinga Raju, of Satyam Computer Services (India), resigned on 1/6/09 because of account falsification.

http://img.iht.com/images/2009/01/07/7satyam550.jpg
"Addel Halim/Bloomberg News: "Ramalinga Raju, chairman of Satyam Computer Services, told the Bombay Stock Exchange that he did not profit from the accounting problems he disclosed on Wednesday."

"A huge chunk of the company's finances were fake. Of the 53.6 billion rupees in cash and bank balances that Satyam listed as assets at the end of its second quarter, 50.4 billion rupees, or about $1 billion, were nonexistent, Raju said in a letter to the Satyam board that was distributed by the Bombay Stock Exchange"

"Satyam serves as the back office for some of the world's largest banks, manufacturers, health care and media companies, handling everything from computer systems to customer service. Clients have included General Electric, General Motors, Nestlé, McGraw-Hill and the U.S. government. In some cases, Satyam is even responsible for finances and accounting for these clients.
"

Although many businesses are run with high levels of integrity, it seems that a few people have succumbed to greed and falsification. If the actions of these few people were limited only to a few others within their circle of business associates, this would not be quite a concern.

Much of the financial decisions made around the world by movers and shakers are based on data that is assumed to be true. We put our trust in our financial institutions and the business related to making our financial world hum.

What does it mean for the bigger picture when large companies willingly put money and sensitive financial/accounting data in the hands of people who falsify information or even intentionally conduct their business in a fraudulent manner?

Each time that I learn of another scandal or fraud related to finance/economics, I wonder how these things could go undetected for so long. I have a few thoughts about how this is perpetuated...

  • Marketing tools for financial institutions and related business have become sophisticated over the years. For example, websites are designed so that customers have a feeling of confidence and trust, in order to complete on-line financial transactions. Trust is "earned" by the image that the institution projects via the look and feel of the company's website and the messages that are provided visually and through text.
On the Satyam website, the following messages provides the reader with a sense of trust, but as we now know, it is false trust.

"Success: It is about having your eye on the outcome all the time"

Stephen Ward on Compliance Management
"Compliance isn’t just about reporting, or data management, or training, or having the right technologies; it’s all of these together. The overarching intent of all of these compliance programs is to help enterprises address four key areas: information integrity, process integrity, controlled access to information, and secure information retention
."

"Creating value for society is an integral part of our business. We believe that contributing to the well-being and development of society is an extension of everything we do....While we undertake urban transformation initiatives through Satyam Foundation, we touch rural transformation through Byrraju Foundation"

Another example of this is what Bernie Madoff's clients and potential clients read on his company's website:

"The Owner's Name is on the Door"


"In an era of faceless organizations owned by other equally faceless organizations, Bernard L. Madoff Investment Securities LLC harks back to an earlier era in the financial world: The owner's name is on the door. Clients know that Bernard Madoff has a personal interest in maintaining the unblemished record of value, fair-dealing, and high ethical standards that has always been the firm's hallmark."

"A Global Leader in Trading US Equities


"With more than $700 million in firm capital, Madoff currently ranks among the top 1% of US Securities firms. Our sophisticated proprietary automation and unparalleled client service delivers an enhanced execution that is virtually unmatched in our industry."


Who will be the next cockroaches we see scurrying around when the light shines?
http://facweb.eths.k12.il.us/wartowskid/images/cockroaches.jpg

RELATED

The Seeds of the Satyam Scandal
(Elizabeth Corcoran, Forbes, 1/8/09)
"It was a horrifying turn for a man long considered one of India's self-made success stories--and active philanthropists. Other Indian executives are quick to contend this is an isolated case. Even so, a few quietly note that it's hard to imagine how a publicly traded company, which must comply with U.S. Sarbanes Oxley disclosure rules, could have been mislead for so long by one or even two individuals...Raju had been a one-of-a-kind man, deeply loyal to his family, patriarchal toward his employees, benevolent to the poor. And yet, suggest some who have known him, Raju grew up in an environment that enjoyed gambling and so ran his career with the bravado of a gambler."

Investors raise questions over PwC Satyam audit (Rhys Blakely, Times Online 1/8/09)
"It's hard to miss $1 billion of cash," Dennis Beresford, a former chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, the US accounting watchdog, said...Satyam's bogus accounts had been audited by Price Waterhouse, the Indian-based auditor, which is a member firm of Price Waterhouse Cooper International, since the financial year 2000-2001... The company's balance sheet as of March 31, 2008 was signed off by Srinivas Talluri, a partner of Price Waterhouse in Hyderabad, the southern Indian city where Satyam is based."

Satyam scandal could be 'India's Enron' (Reuters/msnbc 1/7/09)
""If a company's chairman himself says they built fictitious assets, who do you believe here? This has put a question mark on the entire corporate governance system in India," said R.K. Gupta, managing director at Taurus Asset Management in New Delhi."
""It was like riding a tiger, not knowing how to get off without being eaten," Raju said in his letter, adding he was prepared to face up to the legal consequences.
"





Thursday, December 18, 2008

Blinded by Truthiness: NY Times Article: On Wall Street, Bonuses, Not Profits, Were Real

Looking at the various entries I've posted to this blog, I've noticed a common thread. Much of our financial system is built on something that is fake. Hedge funds. Short selling. Bonuses for CEO's running companies that are not all that sound.

Many people followed the herd mentality. Groupthink. A recent example is all of the people who lost money investing with Bernie Madoff, or trusted financial advisers who funnelled some of their funds into Madoff's Ponzi scheme.

Trust has been lost.

Our system has rewarded perceived movers and shakers in the financial industry. Just think about the huge amount of money that people made from selling mortgages and mortgage-back securities! What about the CEO's who earned large bonuses, even though their companies weren't doing so well, were not run well, or were tanking behind the scenes?

A recent article in the New York Times, On Wall Street, Bonuses, Not Profits, Were Real (12/17/08 - Louise Story). According to the article, in 2006, Dow Kim, at Merrill Lynch, had a salary of $350,000, but received a bonus of $35 million, for overseeing his company's mortgage business traders.

"...Merrill's record earnings in 2006 - $7.5 billion - turned out to be a mirage. The company has since lost three times that amount, largely because the mortgage investments that supposedly had powered some of those profits plunged in value.... Unlike the earnings, however, the bonuses have not been reversed."


Fueled by greed? Yes. But also blinded by "truthiness".

"
Truthiness" is a term that sprung from the head of comedian Stephen Colbert's head.

According to Colbert, Truthiness is 'What I say is right, and [nothing] anyone else says could possibly be true.' It's not only that I feel it to be true, but that I feel it to be true. There's not only an emotional quality, but there's a selfish quality."

Related:
New York Times Series: The Reckoning (Articles exploring the causes of the financial crisis)

New York Times Reader's Comments

Graphic from the New York Times:
http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2008/12/17/business/1218-biz-web-PAY-1.gif
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/18/business/18pay.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

How will trust be restored in our financial markets? There is a long road ahead.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Gordon Gekko, Wall Street, and Behavioral Finance

1987 was not a very good year for the U.S. economy. The "Go-Go '80's were fueled by a touch of greed. Nothing explains this better than the following clip of Gordon Gekko, a fictional corporate raider played by Michael Douglas in the movie Wall Street. Gekko firmly believed that greed is good. Ironically, the events in the movie forshadow the scandals that have been played out on Wall Street and corporate America over the past 21 years. Below is a quote from Gekko's speech, and the corresponding video clip I found on YouTube.

"The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right, greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms: greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge, has marked the upward surge of mankind". - Gordon Gekko (Memorable Quotes from Wall Street)




(I will take down this video if I'm notified that it violates someone's copyright.)

Humans are complex creatures. It would be challenging to create a behavioral finance application that could account for and predict various psychological and sociological scenarios. What would represent a constant? What characteristics, traits, behaviors, and inclinations would play as variables?

Here are a few:
Perhaps "greed" is an important human factor that should be incorporated into this affective/behavioral/financial applications. There are quite a few more:

"herd mentality", "politics", "power", "control", "need for constant adrenaline rush", "sins of omission", "sins of commission", "consumer confidence", "illusion of stability", "cluelessness", and of course, "
truthiness".

I don't intend this to be a joke. In real life, this would be a serious endeavor. I am not sure that Wall Street quants would try to figure ways to quantify the concept of truthiness.

Behavioral Finance Resources

Behavioral Finance: Benefiting from Irrational Investors
(Julia Hanna, Harvard Business School)
"Behavioral finance replaces the traditional and idealized idea of rational decision makers with real and imperfect people who have social, cognitive, and emotional biases. The resulting inefficiencies in the capital markets can create opportunities for investment managers and firms."

Behavioral Finance: A Review and Synthesis pdf
(Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2006)

The Behavioral Finance Hoax pdf
(Richard Michaud)

Detailed presentation, includes theories and formulas:

A Survey of Behavioral Finance
(Nicholas Barberis, Richard Thaler, presented by Ryan Samson, CalTech)

Behavioral Finance at JP Morgan

(Malcolm P. Baker, Aldo Sesia Jr. 2007, Harvard Business Publishing)

Deja Vu-Doo Economics

Deja Vu-Doo Economics is a term used in the media that refers to economic policies and philosophies that echo those put into place by President Ronald Reagan during the 1980's. Reagan's policies were called "Voo-Doo" economics by his nay-sayers, and were also known as "Reaganomics".

Reaganomics helped improve the economy during that decade, and as a result, which helped us forget how bad it was in 1981 and 1982.

.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/fc/REAGANMONEYSPEECH2.jpg/250px-REAGANMONEYSPEECH2.jpg

Some of us forgot that this led us to 1987, the year of Black Monday. The date was October 19, 1987. The stock markets around the world crashed to the ground, but by the end of the year, there was an uptick.

From Wikipedia:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/8/8a/Black_Monday_Dow_Jones.png/250px-Black_Monday_Dow_Jones.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/de/S%26P_500_index_around_the_time_of_the_crash.png
I know I will have to dig a little deeper for the "truth"....sadly, much of what I've found that relates to economics is intertwined with politics and half-truths from both sides of the line.


The following article discusses topics such as Tobin's Q, the "Greater Fool Theory", and Professor Irving Fisher, of Yale University:

Why the Bull is a Compulsive Climber
Peter Passell, The New York Times
October 20, 1996

"Up, up, up it goes, and where it stops nobody knows. Since stock prices began climbing out of the trough of the 1990 recession, the Dow Jones industrial average has grown at 10 times the pace of the American economy. Perhaps as remarkable, investors have brushed aside every bit of troubling news -- from interest rate increases to the defeat of an incumbent Republican President -- with barely a hiccup. Not once in the last six years have stock prices fallen by as much as 10 percent."

Deja Vu-Doo Economics

Reagonomics or 'voodoo economics"?

BBC News, Saturday, June 5, 2004

The return of voodoo economics
Salon.com, September 5, 2002
Arianna Huffington

"There's another blast from the Reagan past that is a little more relevant to most Americans' current financial health than trickle-down dreams. Ask yourself, my friends, are you better off today, after all that tax cutting and deregulating, than you were four years ago?"


Additional resources:
Carlson, Mark (2007) "A Brief History of the 1987 Stock Market Crash with a Discussion of the Federal Reserve Response,"Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.

Black Monday Ten Years After: The Motley Fool's 1987 Timeline
(1997)

(The above resources were found on Wikipedia.)